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By JL | August 15, 2007
It’s finally out, and what a fantastic set of results! And what an unbelievable dividend payout! The full report is here.
Here’s a quick summary of the highlights:
1H total income is 70.8% higher YOY.
1H profit after tax is 72.7% higher YOY.
1H PATMI is 74.3% higher YOY.
And the best part is…
An interim dividend of $0.09 per ordinary share has been declared (Ex Date 4 Sep, payout 20 Sep). That is 3.9% of today’s closing price and worth 7.38 cents premium in stock price. With an after tax return of $0.0738 per share, every 10 lots net you $738 pure cash this time round. Final dividend next year will be another story.
What stunned me further was the realisation that 1H07 earnings have already exceeded that of the entire FY2006. We are on course for a 100% earnings growth in FY2007. Let me fill in the blanks in my previous analysis for a more accurate picture of the UOB Kay Hian stock price and the direction it will be heading.
EPS 2006: $0.1893
EPS 1Q07: $0.0844
EPS 2Q07: $0.1100 (vs my estimate $0.1046)
EPS 1H07: $0.1944
So where do we go from here? Looking at the subprime slime that’s hitting stock markets in every corner on this planet, I am going to base my full year projection on a couple of very important assumptions. Which are, we will recover from the credit crunch fear by this quarter, and trading interests will gather strength again latest from Q4 onward.
My Q3 and Q4 EPS estimates = each is 10% less than Q2 = $0.2000 for 2H07. Again, I am being conservative here, but that will still bring about an incredibly strong final $0.3944 EPS for FY2007, which is 108% more than FY2006.
With today’s closing price of $2.30, the PE ratio based on FY07 earnings is 5.83. Even TTM PE ratio based on TTM EPS of $0.2721 is only 8.45. Stock price as of end of Q2 was $2.16. That’s in line with my observation of TTM PE ratio of 8 at the end of every quarter.
So, working forward, the new target price for UOB Kay Hian is revised to be $3.15 by end of December. Everything has turned out like clockwork. Actual results have been very close to estimates. Therefore I reiterate a BUY call for a 37% capital gain (estimated) and a 3.9% dividend gain (confirmed) from now until the end of 2007.
Topics: UOB Kay Hian |
August 16th, 2007 at 5:24 pm
The market has gone completely insane. Interim dividends are now 4.5% of last done price. Transaction worth is $3.3b today. Business is still as good. Bought some more at $2.00, for the dividends if nothing else. At a time like this, UOBKH is the best kind of stock to accumulate IMHO.